Saturday 28 March 2020

Do we see reality?

TED Talk by Donald Hoffman on Do we see reality? poses questions which have been asked many times in various Indian Scriptures.

Some of the statements are very interesting:

In 1868, Thomas Huxley wrote, "How it is that anything so remarkable as a state of consciousness comes about as the result of irritating nervous tissue is just as unaccountable as the appearance of the genie when Aladdin rubbed his lamp." Now, Huxley knew that brain activity and conscious experiences are correlated, but he didn't know why. To the science of his day, it was a mystery. In the years since Huxley, science has learned a lot about brain activity, but the relationship between brain activity and conscious experiences is still a mystery. Why? Why have we made so little progress? Well, some experts think that we can't solve this problem because we lack the necessary concepts and intelligence

Donald Hoffman gave some wonderful examples explaining how perception is not reality and hence reality is something different.

As it is said:

This Vedic truth is not a product of the human mind and cannot be comprehended by the unaided human intellect. Only a competent teacher, through direct experience, can reveal to the qualified student the true significance of the Vedas and the fullness of their absolutely consistent truth.

The talk is interesting and worth listening:

Sunday 22 March 2020

Y N Harari , Coronavirus and the world

Y N Harari is a world famous Israeli writer, His book Homo Sapiens is considered as one of the best books in history of human evolution over a period of millions of years.

Post spread of coronavirus two wonderful articles by Harari in Time magazine and Financial Times newspaper is worth reading.

In the Battle Against Coronavirus, Humanity Lacks Leadership ( Time ). Following is the key sections, reproduced below:

1. The real antidote to epidemic is not segregation, but rather cooperation.
2. This is because the best defense humans have against pathogens is not isolation – it is information. Humanity has been winning the war against epidemics because in the arms race between pathogens and doctors, pathogens rely on blind mutations while doctors rely on the scientific analysis of information.
3. Indeed, when people gathered together for mass prayers, it often caused mass infections.
4. While medieval people never discovered what caused the Black Death, it took scientists just two weeks to identify the novel coronavirus, sequence its genome and develop a reliable test to identify infected people.
5. First, it implies that you cannot protect yourself by permanently closing your borders. Remember that epidemics spread rapidly even in the Middle Ages, long before the age of globalization. So even if you reduce your global connections to the level of England in 1348 – that still would not be enough. To really protect yourself through isolation, going medieval won’t do. You would have to go full Stone Age. Can you do that?
6. Secondly, history indicates that real protection comes from the sharing of reliable scientific information, and from global solidarity.
7. Perhaps the most important thing people should realize about such epidemics, is that the spread of the epidemic in any country endangers the entire human species. This is because viruses evolve.
8.  Each human carrier is like a gambling machine that gives the virus trillions of lottery tickets – and the virus needs to draw just one winning ticket in order to thrive .
9. People all over the world share a life-and-death interest not to give the coronavirus such an opportunity. And that means that we need to protect every person in every country.
10. In the fight against viruses, humanity needs to closely guard borders. But not the borders between countries. Rather, it needs to guard the border between the human world and the virus-sphere. 
11.  We are used to thinking about health in national terms, but providing better healthcare for Iranians and Chinese helps protect Israelis and Americans too from epidemics. This simple truth should be obvious to everyone, but unfortunately it escapes even some of the most important people in the world.
12. Hopefully the current epidemic will help humankind realize the acute danger posed by global disunity.
13. To take one prominent example, the epidemic could be a golden opportunity for the E.U. to regain the popular support it has lost in recent years. If the more fortunate members of the E.U. swiftly and generously send money, equipment and medical personnel to help their hardest-hit colleagues, this would prove the worth of the European ideal better than any number of speeches. If, on the other hand, each country is left to fend for itself, then the epidemic might sound the death-knell of the union.
14. If this epidemic results in greater disunity and mistrust among humans, it will be the virus’s greatest victory. When humans squabble – viruses double.

Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus (Financial Times).

Key portions of article in Financial Times is not re-produced as it may violate FT.com copyright practices.

I will request blog visitors to visit to the link provided above, which is accessible. The article is a must read.

23 March 2020

Financial Times article can be read in msn.com.

Key points:

You could, of course, make the case for biometric surveillance as a temporary measure taken during a state of emergency. It would go away once the emergency is over. But temporary measures have a nasty habit of outlasting emergencies, especially as there is always a new emergency lurking on the horizon. My home country of Israel, for example, declared a state of emergency during its 1948 War of Independence, which justified a range of temporary measures from press censorship and land confiscation to special regulations for making pudding (I kid you not). The War of Independence has long been won, but Israel never declared the emergency over, and has failed to abolish many of the “temporary” measures of 1948 (the emergency pudding decree was mercifully abolished in 2011).


First and foremost, in order to defeat the virus we need to share information globally. That’s the big advantage of humans over viruses. A coronavirus in China and a coronavirus in the US cannot swap tips about how to infect humans. But China can teach the US many valuable lessons about coronavirus and how to deal with it. What an Italian doctor discovers in Milan in the early morning might well save lives in Tehran by evening. When the UK government hesitates between several policies, it can get advice from the Koreans who have already faced a similar dilemma a month ago. But for this to happen, we need a spirit of global co-operation and trust. 

Countries need to co-operate in order to allow at least a trickle of essential travellers to continue crossing borders: scientists, doctors, journalists, politicians, businesspeople. This can be done by reaching a global agreement on the pre-screening of travellers by their home country. If you know that only carefully screened travellers were allowed on a plane, you would be more willing to accept them into your country.

Tuesday 17 March 2020

In Challenging times

ishrat-e-qatra hai dariyā meñ fanā ho jaanā 

dard kā had se guzarnā hai davā ho jaanā 

to be consumed by oceans is the droplet's ecstasy

when pain exceeds all bounds becomes, itself the remedy.

By Mirza Ghalib

Source: rekhta.org

Sunday 15 March 2020

Did Yes Bank Management lied?

Interview Dated July 18, 2019

Gill, in his interview to CNBC-TV18, said the capital raised would be "for growth purposes only, and not to heal the balance sheet" of Yes Bank.

Gill said the bank was looking to conclude the capital raising exercise in the second quarter of FY20. When asked if capital would be required for the bank's clean up exercise, he said the operating profit of the bank would suffice.

Video link: Gill Interview

Interview Dated December 01, 2019

Select portions from the interview is reproduced below:

What has changed between then and now in terms of the $1.2 billion becoming $2 billion is if you see the way the financial services right now are in the country, the opportunity that exists private sector banks today, has become much broader. I think the path forward has become much clearer and much longer. We thought that if such an opportunity does exist, won’t it be better to capitalise ourselves even more than what we had initially set out to do and then monetise this big growth opportunity that lies ahead of us?

I also think in terms of providing more comfort to our various stakeholders that the bank is on a stronger and more stable footing, that messaging would be important. So I would say that if there is one takeaway that the market should have from this board announcement is the fact that there is $2 billion of capital available to the bank.

Videl Link: Gill Interview

Letter dated: February 12, 2020 (from BSE regulatory filing by Yes Bank):

The Bank and its management is deeply engaged with the exercise outlined above and which includes extensive work with its investment bankers, legal and accounting advisors, the investors and the independent vendor/legal due diligence commissioned for investors. Given that the current capital raising process has the Banl<' s fullest attention, it would like to inform the exchanges that it will publish its unaudited financial results for the quarter and nine month period ending December 31, 2019 on or before March 14, 2020. 

On 14 March 2020 Yes Bank declared Quarter 3 results. Business Today report states:

YES Bank's deposit base crashed from Rs 2.09 lakh crore in September 2019 to Rs 1.65 lakh crore in December 2019.  It has now gone further down to Rs 1.37 lakh crore as on March 04, 2020. That shows a complete break of trust in the bank.

YES Bank's gross NPAs have pole-vaulted to 18.87 per cent -- the highest in the private banking space. Many public sector banks, though, reported such high levels of gross NPAs a few years ago. The absolute NPAs figure is at staggering Rs 40,709 crore. This is alarming as there would be another set of stressed loans that will increase the bad book to unsustainable levels.

The final question

Did Yes Bank lied repeatedly and can investors / depositors sue Yes Bank for believing in their repeated false statement about Strong Balance Sheet and Operating Profits?

Learning from Yes Bank Fiasco

As Jason Karaian, correctly titled his article in Quartz:

That’s it, we can never trust bankers again.

Message of Life from Vidura

Vikram Doctor in his article What the last meal ritual for prisoners tells us about life introduced a story about a brahmana in the forest analogy known as the parable of honey.

The search for the story took me to khandro.net where i got the full story. I will reproduce here the story which explains the purpose of life in a very simple manner:

The most famous example occurs in the great Indian epic, The Mahabharat (Book 11, sections 5-6) where Vidura the Sage, whose father is Dharma, relates the parable known as "the drop of honey" to blind king, Dhritarashtra:

A certain brahmana, living in the great world, found himself on one occasion in a large inaccessible forest teeming with beasts of prey. It abounded on every side with lions and other animals looking like elephants, all of which were engaged in roaring aloud. Such was the aspect of that forest that Yama himself would take fright at it.

Beholding the forest, the heart of the brahmana became exceedingly agitated. His hair stood on end, and other signs of fear manifested themselves, O scorcher of foes!

Entering it, he began to run hither and thither, casting his eyes on every point of the compass for finding out somebody whose shelter he might seek. Wishing to avoid those terrible creatures, he ran in fright. He could not succeed, however, in distancing them or freeing himself from their presence.

He then saw that that terrible forest was surrounded with a net, and that a frightful woman stood there, stretching her arms. That large forest was also encompassed by many five-headed snakes of dreadful forms, tall as cliffs and touching the very heavens.

Within it was a pit whose mouth was covered with many hard and unyielding creepers and herbs. The brahmana, in course of his wanderings, fell into that invisible pit. He became entangled in those clusters of creepers that were interwoven with one another, like the large fruit of a jack tree hanging by its stalk. He continued to hang there, feet upwards and head downwards.

While he was in that posture, diverse other calamities overtook him. He beheld a large and mighty snake within the pit. He also saw a gigantic elephant near its mouth. That elephant, dark in complexion, had six faces and twelve feet. And the animal gradually approached that pit covered with creepers and trees.

About the twigs of the tree (that stood at the mouth of the pit), roved many bees of frightful forms, employed from before in drinking the honey gathered in their comb about which they swarmed in large numbers.  Repeatedly they desired, O bull of Bharata’s race, to taste that honey which, though sweet to all creatures could, however, attract children only.

The honey (collected in the comb) fell in many jets below. The person who was hanging in the pit continually drank those jets. Employed, in such a distressful situation, in drinking that honey, his thirst, however, could not be appeased. Unsatiated with repeated draughts, the person desired for more. Even then, O king, he did not become indifferent to life. Even there, the man continued to hope for existence.

A number of black and white rats were eating away the roots of that tree. There was fear from the beasts of prey, from that fierce woman on the outskirts of that forest, from that snake at the bottom of the well, from that elephant near its top, from the fall of the tree through the action of the rats, and lastly from those bees flying about for tasting the honey. In that plight he continued to dwell, deprived of his senses, in that wilderness, never losing at any time the hope of prolonging his life.’"

Then Vidura expounds:

‘They that are conversant, O monarch, with the religion of moksha cite this as a simile. Understanding this properly, a person may attain to bliss in the regions hereafter.


That which is described as the wilderness is the great world. The inaccessible forest within it is the limited sphere of one’s own life. Those that have been mentioned as beasts of prey are the diseases (to which we are subject). That woman of gigantic proportions residing in the forest is identified by the wise with Decrepitude which destroys complexion and beauty. That which has been spoken of as the pit is the body or physical frame of embodied creatures. The huge snake dwelling in the bottom of that pit is time, the destroyer of all embodied creatures. It is, indeed, the universal destroyer. The cluster of creepers growing in that pit and attached to whose spreading stems the man hangeth down is the desire for life which is cherished by every creature. The six-faced elephant, O king, which proceeds towards the tree standing at the mouth of the pit is spoken of as the year. Its six faces are the seasons and its twelve feet are the twelve months. The rats and the snakes that are cutting off the tree are said to be days and nights that are continually lessening the periods of life of all creatures. Those that have been described as bees are our desires. The numerous jets that are dropping honey are the pleasures derived from the gratification of our desires and to which men are seen to be strongly addicted. The wise know life’s course to be even such. Through that knowledge they succeed in tearing off its bonds.’" ~ 19th-century KM Ganguli translation.

Wednesday 11 March 2020

Stop Praising Private Sector Banks in India

An excellent article on Public Sector Banks (PSB) by Adikesavan , in Business Line newspaper, is worth reading.

The article is important at the backdrop of Yes Bank Fiasco. The article was appropriately titled:

YES, public sector banks aren’t bad at all

I will reproduce here sections which are very relevant for changing the perception about Public Sector Banks:

Public sector banks have time and again provided support to crisis-ridden NPBs, in the form of investment, advice and the supply of talent. Even the administrator in charge of YES Bank is a seasoned SBI Deputy Managing Director, not an NPB veteran.

Article is worth reading. It helps us to understand how we have to view Public Sector Banks differently. Especially from the economic benefits derived from the loan extended to infrastructure projects. The author rightly states:

Here, a comparison with two other sectors in the post 1991-reform period will be in order. When the licences for NPBs were liberalised there was apprehension whether PSBs like SBI will be able to withstand competition. The same worries permeated sectors like telecom and aviation. Unlike the other two sectors, a few banks like SBI have not only withstood the competition but in some areas, even bettered their records. It is apposite now to come to the relevant question of “supporting the economy and fostering development” which is the onus of the PSBs as the Survey states. That they lent heavily for infrastructure development is known. All the major roads, airports and power plants would not have come up but for PSBs. The NPBs played it safe. That the PSBs suffered on account of NPAs in these sectors is a fact. But no economist has measured the development benefits that the loans engendered.

Just one example. The Indore-Ujjain highway is one of the best roads we have. Loans to the road developer became an NPA and were recovered under an OTS (one-time settlement). But the highway is a national asset and eases the way for crores of pilgrims, including during the Ujjain Kumbh Mela of 2016. No NPB funded this asset.

Article source: J Gopikrishnan (Journalist)

Sunday 8 March 2020

The loan disclosure In Indian Context

It was difficult to imagine Rana Kapoor of Yes Bank , Chanda Kocchar of ICICI Bank, Wadhawan of DHFL, Anil Ambani group, Subhash Chandra Group, Essar group , Nirav Mody and Vijay Mallya will go down in India.

It was believed these class of people are invincible.

The common factor among all were Bank and their difficulty in repayment of loans.

Considering the difficulty of having control over reckless lending, following should be proposed by Reserve Bank of India:

1. Any public institution (accepting deposits from general public) lending more than Rs.100 crores should be made to disclose the name of the entity (Company name and promoter group) on their websites and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) website.
2. The data should be presented in the RBI website promoter group / bank wise. XYZ Group Rs.10,500 crores with names of banks.
3. The public institution should disclose their loan outstanding on a Quarterly basis i.e. Loan Rs.500 cores (principal and interest to be shown separately) and repayment of (Principal and Loan) on a quarterly basis should be displayed. Same should be displayed on the RBI website also.
4. The report should be signed by Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer.

To be displayed on every public institution's website:

Group
Principal
Interest
Balance
Last paid date










Note: Above format can be altered and improved to give more details regarding the loan status of a group. The format should be common across all institutions and easily downloadable. RBI should provide the same format but for all banks combined.

Wednesday 4 March 2020

Prakash and Mandakini Amte Speech

Moneylife foundation invited Prakash and Mandakini Amte (Magsaysay Award winners) to speak on their 10th Anniversary.

The speech was worth listening to and learning from. All blog readers are requested to go through speech till end.