Recently, Income Tax department part of Central Board Of Direct Taxes (
CBDT) tweeted:
During
the current financial year, 5.78 crore individuals filed returns disclosing
income of financial year 2018-19.
Hence it
was decided to calculate and check whether percentage of individuals filing returns is at an acceptable limits.
According to CBDT, roughly 4.19% (5.78 crores out of 138
crores as on February 2020) of the population filed returns.
“But
in a country of 130 crore people, only 1.5 crore people pay income tax.”.
Therefore,
we have two base figures, population of India as on February 2020 and
number of individuals filed returns. For the sake of simplicity of calculation,
the population is fixed at 138 crores. Population source: worldmeters.info
We will
break up age wise population of India as on 14 February 2020. Please note
according to the worldmeters.info, population is 138 crores approx. as on 14 February 2020.
Details:
Table A
Age
|
Males
|
Male %
|
Females
|
Female %
|
Total
Population
|
%
|
00-04
|
6,12,28,414
|
52.39%
|
5,56,51,093
|
47.61%
|
11,68,79,507
|
8.47%
|
05-09
|
6,18,77,169
|
52.45%
|
5,61,04,958
|
47.55%
|
11,79,82,127
|
8.55%
|
10-14
|
6,63,02,628
|
52.56%
|
5,98,53,324
|
47.44%
|
12,61,55,952
|
9.14%
|
15-19
|
6,66,70,855
|
52.89%
|
5,93,74,711
|
47.11%
|
12,60,45,566
|
9.13%
|
20-24
|
6,48,65,811
|
52.95%
|
5,76,38,993
|
47.05%
|
12,25,04,804
|
8.88%
|
25-29
|
6,20,39,339
|
52.85%
|
5,53,57,930
|
47.15%
|
11,73,97,269
|
8.51%
|
30-34
|
5,88,74,888
|
52.48%
|
5,33,01,210
|
47.52%
|
11,21,76,098
|
8.13%
|
35-39
|
5,39,93,918
|
52.19%
|
4,94,66,260
|
47.81%
|
10,34,60,178
|
7.50%
|
40-44
|
4,66,31,243
|
51.69%
|
4,35,88,651
|
48.31%
|
9,02,19,894
|
6.54%
|
45-49
|
4,07,56,605
|
51.30%
|
3,86,83,675
|
48.70%
|
7,94,40,280
|
5.76%
|
50-54
|
3,52,02,663
|
51.11%
|
3,36,73,299
|
48.89%
|
6,88,75,962
|
4.99%
|
55-59
|
3,01,50,272
|
50.88%
|
2,91,05,996
|
49.12%
|
5,92,56,268
|
4.29%
|
60-64
|
2,46,94,672
|
50.51%
|
2,41,95,856
|
49.49%
|
4,88,90,528
|
3.54%
|
65-69
|
1,91,68,129
|
50.10%
|
1,90,92,154
|
49.90%
|
3,82,60,283
|
2.77%
|
70-74
|
1,16,27,908
|
48.27%
|
1,24,63,535
|
51.73%
|
2,40,91,443
|
1.75%
|
75-79
|
70,62,999
|
46.82%
|
80,20,956
|
53.18%
|
1,50,83,955
|
1.09%
|
80-84
|
38,31,463
|
45.13%
|
46,57,548
|
54.87%
|
84,89,011
|
0.62%
|
85-89
|
15,75,584
|
44.62%
|
19,55,555
|
55.38%
|
35,31,139
|
0.26%
|
90-94
|
4,37,188
|
44.03%
|
5,55,797
|
55.97%
|
9,92,985
|
0.07%
|
95-99
|
91,981
|
41.21%
|
1,31,216
|
58.79%
|
2,23,197
|
0.02%
|
100+
|
17,241
|
35.96%
|
30,698
|
64.04%
|
47,939
|
0.00%
|
Total
|
|
|
|
|
1,38,00,04,385
|
|
Population:
138 crores approx.
Details assumed for working:
India’s Female
Labour Participation in work force is 23.3%.
92% of Female
and 82% of Male earn less than Rs.10,000 per month.
With the
help of above data and few assumptions (not based on any survey but random
assumption by me) in column (M – Male and F – Female percentage of population who can work) by me, the individual who can be employed is arrived at column Employed:
Table B
|
Age
|
Males
|
Females
|
Can work
|
Can file returns
|
Employed
|
M
|
F
|
00-04
|
6,12,28,414
|
5,56,51,093
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
05-09
|
6,18,77,169
|
5,61,04,958
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
10-14
|
6,63,02,628
|
5,98,53,324
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
15-19
|
6,66,70,855
|
5,93,74,711
|
Partial
|
Partial
|
63,02,278.30
|
5%
|
5%
|
20-24
|
6,48,65,811
|
5,76,38,993
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
11,02,54,323.60
|
90%
|
90%
|
25-29
|
6,20,39,339
|
5,53,57,930
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
7,18,52,377.12
|
95%
|
23%
|
30-34
|
5,88,74,888
|
5,33,01,210
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6,83,66,315.89
|
95%
|
23%
|
35-39
|
5,39,93,918
|
4,94,66,260
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
6,28,34,700.56
|
95%
|
23%
|
40-44
|
4,66,31,243
|
4,35,88,651
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
5,44,68,913.13
|
95%
|
23%
|
45-49
|
4,07,56,605
|
3,86,83,675
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4,77,43,676.13
|
95%
|
23%
|
50-54
|
3,52,02,663
|
3,36,73,299
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
4,12,98,510.51
|
95%
|
23%
|
55-59
|
3,01,50,272
|
2,91,05,996
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
3,54,33,187.27
|
95%
|
23%
|
60-64
|
2,46,94,672
|
2,41,95,856
|
Partial
|
Partial
|
1,06,03,744.48
|
40%
|
3%
|
65-69
|
1,91,68,129
|
1,90,92,154
|
Partial
|
Partial
|
11,49,327.99
|
5%
|
1%
|
70-74
|
1,16,27,908
|
1,24,63,535
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
75-79
|
70,62,999
|
80,20,956
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
80-84
|
38,31,463
|
46,57,548
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
85-89
|
15,75,584
|
19,55,555
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
90-94
|
4,37,188
|
5,55,797
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
95-99
|
91,981
|
1,31,216
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
100+
|
17,241
|
30,698
|
No
|
No
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
| | | | |
51,03,07,354.97
| |
Population that can be employed: 51.03 crores approx.
Notes:
Can be employed:
Possibility of getting employment
Employed
= M (%) X Males + F (%) X Females
Individuals
participating in agriculture activity is not excluded from the above population
for the sake of avoiding complexity. This is to have a ball park figure.
It is
assumed that individuals earning above Rs.10,000 in a month are filing returns (even
though it is known many with income of Rs.20,000 in a month are not filing
returns).
Below table is to calculate how many individuals can file returns based on above assumptions:
Table C
Age
|
Employed
|
Return
Filing
|
M
|
F
|
Average
|
00-04
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
05-09
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
10-14
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
15-19
|
63,02,278.30
|
8,19,296.18
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
20-24
|
11,02,54,323.60
|
1,43,33,062.07
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
25-29
|
7,18,52,377.12
|
93,40,809.03
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
30-34
|
6,83,66,315.89
|
88,87,621.07
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
35-39
|
6,28,34,700.56
|
81,68,511.07
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
40-44
|
5,44,68,913.13
|
70,80,958.71
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
45-49
|
4,77,43,676.13
|
62,06,677.90
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
50-54
|
4,12,98,510.51
|
53,68,806.37
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
55-59
|
3,54,33,187.27
|
46,06,314.34
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
60-64
|
1,06,03,744.48
|
13,78,486.78
|
18%
|
8%
|
13%
|
65-69
|
11,49,327.99
|
34,479.84
|
5%
|
1%
|
3%
|
70-74
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
75-79
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
80-84
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
85-89
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
90-94
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
95-99
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
100+
|
-
|
-
|
0%
|
0%
|
0%
|
|
51,03,07,354.97
|
6,62,25,023.35
|
|
|
|
Population that can file returns: 6.62 crores approx.
Notes:
In case of
Male 18% (100-82) and Female 8% (100-92) is assumed can file returns.
Male = Out
of 100 only 12 earn more than Rs.10,000 per month
Female =
Out of 100 only 8 earn more than Rs.10,000 per month
Now the
final template:
Details
|
Crores
|
% of population
|
Population
|
138.00
|
|
Employable
|
51.03
|
37%
|
Can file returns
|
6.62
|
5%
|
Returns filed
|
5.78
|
4%
|
To put in
words:
In case of
India out of population of 138 crores, 51.03 crores (i.e.37% of 138 crores) are
employable (can work). Out of 51.03 crores, 6.62 crores (i.e. 5% of 138 crores) can
file returns (considering majority earn less than Rs.10,000 per month).
According to CBDT 5.78 Crores (4% of 138 crores) filed return.
In other words,
out 6.62 crores of individual who can work 5.78 crores filed return
(i.e.87.33%). By adjusting 10% as deviation on lower side.
It can be assumed
77% of individuals who can work and earn more than Rs.10, 000 per month have filed return.
Note:
Above working is an attempt to arrive at figure to understand the population of India and how many can file returns.
If there is any error / corrections required in assumptions considered above, readers are requested to mention it on the comments column. Necessary changes will be incorporated above if they are required.
