Saturday 27 October 2018

Biggest Fear of Entrepreneur

The biggest fear of a entrepreneur when a venture does not take off was rightly stated by Subhadip Nandy in his interview "Option trading lessons from the man who sold his trading system to JPMorgan":

"
Circa April 2003, I was trading futures contract and made decent money. On April 10, 2003, Infosys announced a lower than expected guidance and its price fell from Rs 4,200 a share to Rs 3,060 a share in a day.

I knew that with this kind of selloff the Relative Strength Index (RSI) would be in the extremely oversold range. Now I had done these kinds of trades earlier where I went long on an oversold position and did well the next day. My line of thinking was that the company had only lowered its guidance but there is nothing wrong with this great company and the price would bounce back.

I went long four contracts by the close of the market at around Rs 3,060. Next morning as the market opened I was standing right behind the dealer eager to book my profit.

The first tick on the market was a rate of Rs 2,880. I did not freeze when I saw the price. I knew I was wrong in my analysis and asked the dealer to sell 8 contracts which would mean I would cover my 4 long contracts and would be short on four contracts.

The next quote on the screen was Rs 2,740 I moved my order to this level but did not get a fill. Next tick 2,600 and then 2,580 then 2,400 and 2,240 all without my order getting executed. At this point, I told my dealer to sell 8 contracts on the market rather than a price point which would ensure a fill.

I managed to book the loss on my long position of around Rs 3,060 at around 2,240 and go short at the same level.

Infosys closed the day at around Rs 2,880. I was a wreck. Not only did I blow my account but now I owed the broker Rs 50,000 and I did not have any source of earning to repay this money.

It was not the money that was playing on my mind, it was the burden of going back to my sales job pleading people to buy stuff and watch my boss throw tantrums. I was too used to the freedom I enjoyed over the last three years and dreaded the thought of losing it."

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