Mother Madalasa - Lullaby

A Lullaby by Queen Madalasa worth reading.

शुद्धोऽसि रे बाल न तेऽस्ति नाम कृतं हि वै तत कल्पनयाधुनैव ।

पञ्चात्मकं देहमिदं न तेऽस्ति त्वं वास्य रे रोदिषि कस्य हेतोः ॥ (१)

O  Child ! For what reason you are crying? Don’t cry. Thou Art ever Pure and 
Eternal, devoid of Names and Forms. You are the form of Bliss, 
untouched by Sorrow.  You have superimposed the sorrow upon yourself
and owing to ignorance, are wailing.  The sorrow arose owing to the
false identity with body and hence experiencing sorrow which is
the cause of your cry.  Since, Thou Art Existence, Knowledge, Bliss 
Absolute and not the body consisting of 5 elements, 
where is the point in crying.  All these names and forms are ephemeral 
and are imaginary. .  So, don’t cry.

न वै भवान रोदिति विश्वजन्मा शब्दोऽयमासाद्य महीसमूहम ।
विकल्प्यमानो विविधैर्गुणार्थैः गुणाश्च भूताः सकलेन्द्रियेषु ॥ (२)

Don’t Cry ! Thou Art Ishwara – the Creator and Lord of the Universe.  
As the creation is a “vikalpa” born out of ignorance, 
where is the point in wailing and crying?  Hence, don’t cry.

भूतानि भूतोपरि दुर्बलानि वृद्धिं समायान्ति तथेह पुंसाम ।
अन्नाम्बुदानादिभिरेककस्य न तेऽस्ति वृद्धिर्न च तेऽस्ति हानिः ॥ (३)

Just as the gross elements with combination among themselves,
is subjected to increase (वृद्धि) and decrease (क्षय), 
similarly, this body, made of gross elements, too, is 
subjected to change and decay.  The Inner Self (Atman) is 
beyond these attributes, untouched.  And, Thou Art That.  
Hence, don’t cry.

त्वं कञ्चुके सज्यमानो निजेस्मिन्नस्मिंश्च देहे मूढतां न व्रजेथाः ।
शुभाशुभैः कर्मभिर्देहमेनं मदाभिमूढैः कञ्चुकेऽस्मिन्पिनद्धः ॥ (४)

Thou, having worn this armor called “body”, becoming deluded, 
are identifying with it.  Thou Art the Witness but out of ignorance 
and under the influence of “I-ness” and “My-ness” are 
trapped in the meshes of samsAra.  
Hence, don’t cry.

तातेति किञ्चित्तनयेति किञ्चित अम्बेति किञ्चिदपितेति किञ्चित ।
तवेति किञ्चिन्न ममेति किञ्चिद्भौतेषु सर्वं मुहुरालयेथाः ॥ (५)

By getting entangled in the mesh of Ignorance called samsAra,
this “body” is identified sometimes with father, sometimes with son, 
sometimes with mother, sometimes with brother, sometimes as a 
relative, as a friend as a foe etc. in several births down the line. 
All these are due to false identity of attachment with the 
body owing to Ignorance.  This ignorance is due to non-awareness 
of the identity with the Supreme Innermost Self which is of the form of Bliss.

दुःखञ्च दुःखोपशमं शमाय भोगाय जानाति विमूढचेताः ।
तान्येव दुःखानि पुनः सुखानि जानाति विद्वानविमूढचेताः ॥ (६)

In order to do away with sorrows, the ignorant fool runs after 
momentary pleasures.  The intelligent, having endowed with 
power of discrimination, would strive to do away with 
both pleasures and pains.  For him, just as pain is an obstruction, 
so as the pleasure.  Such a person is called “vidvAn”.  
Thou Art That.  Hence, don’t cry.

सहोत्थितं दर्शनमक्षियुग्मं अत्युज्ज्वलं तत्कलुषं वसायाः ।
कुचोऽति पीनं पिशितं घनं तत्स्थानं ततः किन्नरकं न योषित ॥ (७)

Upon careful observation of the anatomy of a woman, one comes
to the conclusion that it is made up of flesh.  Not knowing this,
the deluded men run after them and thus, thus, end up in 
getting entangled in pain and  cycle of birth and death.

यानं क्षितौ यानगतं च देहं देहेऽपिचान्यः पुरुषो निविष्टः ।
ममत्वमथ्याॅन्न तथा यथा स्वे देहेऽतिमात्रं च न मूढतैषा ॥ (८)

On this earth, take birth several bodies endowed upAdhis.  
These are subjected to change (called yAna) (यान). But, there is a 
Supreme Self called “Purusha” who is seated inside the body
who is Eternal and Witness.  Thou Art That, O Child!  Don’t identify 
yourself with the yAna but Thou Art that Supreme Purusha.  
Hence, don’t cry.

Note: समानेप्यभिमानविषये देहे एव दृढं अभिमानं कुर्वन्नति मूढ इत्याह यानं इति 
(ie., the Jiva abhimana is called yAna)

Source for the above Lullaby:

https://www.advaita-vedanta.org/archives/advaita-l/2016-March/040353.html

India - Avoid uncontrolled growth of Private Equity

The Public Sector Unit (PSU) banks are under Non Performing Assets (NPA) Mountain. 

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) noted:

"Macro-stress tests indicate that under the baseline scenario of current macroeconomic outlook, SCBs' (scheduled commercial banks) GNPA ratio may rise from 11.6 per cent in March 2018 to 12.2 per cent by March 2019”.

In this back drop of NPA and India’s future economic growth, even if NPA is resolved and banks are well capitalized by Government (Citizen) funding, following is inevitable post 2020:

·        Private Equity players will increase in India.

·        More MBA’s from IIM and other management institutes will work with PE

·        More growth to McKinsey and other management consultants (check video link):

I believe the Private Equity play will start in a big way post April 2020.

Let’s see the latest position in India:

Economic times article states “Private Equity industry in India: Bigger, bolder, better, brighter”.

Mint states "The private equity sector has seen robust growth in 2017 with average deal size doubling in the year although deal volume declined."

One of the biggest lie will be the contribution of Private Equity to the Indian Economy and towards job creation. 

Proof: McKinsey Report Indian Private Equity “Route to Resurgence” June 2015.

The executive summary states the following benefits:

·        Stronger job creation record

·        Superior financial performance.

·        Greater export earnings

·        More acquisitive and global

·        Better corporate governance and higher tax contribution

To have a proper picture of what Private Equity does please watch the below video:

Eminent financial authors have spoken how Private Equity players are reason for:

·        Higher debts

·        Commission based working

·        Job Loss

May be in coming months there will be great articles written praising role of Private Equity in India and its benefits. But this will be a ground work for the future NPA's. May be then the ones who will be struck will be Private Banks.

Mistakes to be avoided:

·        Creation of Bad Banks

·        Handing over of PSU banks to Private

India and Indians better be careful.

Source:

RBI note: https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/banks/rbi-npa-situation-likely-to-worsen-further/story/279587.html

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/small-biz/startups/newsbuzz/private-equity-industry-in-india-bigger-bolder-better-brighter/articleshow/64009498.cms

https://www.livemint.com/Companies/BfqbFlxsx2z2bEcQQBXrvL/Private-equity-sector-sees-record-244-billion-inflow-in-20.html

McKinsey Report:

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance/our%20insights/private%20equity%20and%20indias%20economic%20development/mckinsey_indian_private%20equity.ashx

My Learning - The Zurich Axioms

The book The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther (1985) is a collection of Axioms. Axioms is “a statement or principle that is generally accepted to be true, but need not be so”. The book contains many statements which helps us in taking better decisions. 

Reading of the book is essential as they serve as practical advises nurtured over a long period. The book is worth reading:

My learning from the book is reproduced below:

About Investments

 “All Investments is speculation”

About bet what you can afford to lose

“If an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring you any significant gain either. The only way to win a big payoff from a small wager is to go for a long, long shot. You might buy a $1 lottery ticket and win a million, for instance. That is nice to dream about, but the odds against you, of course, are depressingly high.”. In short “Always play for meaningful stakes”

Best explanation about why not to diversify

“Most of us middle-class plungers, at the start of our speculative adventures, have only a limited amount of capital to play with. Let's say you have $5,000. You want to make it grow. What are you going to do with it? The conventional wisdom would say diversify. Make ten bets of $500 each. Buy $500 worth of GM because the auto industry looks lively, put $500 in a savings account in case interest rates go up, $500 into gold in case the bottom drops out of everything, and so on. There -- you're covered for all kinds of eventualities. Makes you feel safe, doesn't it? Safe from just about everything -- including the danger of getting wealthy.”

“But don't diversify just for the sake of diversity. You then become like a contestant in a supermarket shopping contest, in which the object is to fill your basket fast. You go home with a lot of expensive junk you don't really want. In speculation, you should put your money into ventures that genuinely attract you, and only those. Never buy something simply because you think you need it to round out a "diversified portfolio."

As some say around Wall Street, "Put all your eggs in one basket, and then watch the basket." This is one old financial bromide that stands scrutiny. Whoever first said it was obviously not a diversification fan. It is much easier to watch one or a few baskets than a dozen. When the fox comes around to steal your eggs, you can handle him without whirling around in circles.”

Importance of knowing when to stop or book your profits

“There are many kinds of human endeavors in which starting and ending positions are clearly seen, felt, and understood. Athletics, for instance. When a runner comes to the end of a mile race, he or she knows it's the end. There is no question of racing on for another mile in the hope of winning two gold medals instead of one.

All energies are exhausted. The tape is broken; the winners are on the record books.

It's all over. It is time to quit, rest, gather new energies for another day.”

The philosophical Truth

An ending is a time when you withdraw, breathe a sigh of relief, and briefly relax.

Problem on Greed of holding stocks for higher returns

“But how do you arrive at such a clearly seen stopping place in a world where there are no finish-line tapes, no end-of-the-round bells? Especially when each succeeding position feels like a new starting position? You've bought a handful of Union Carbide stock, let's say. Or you've invested in gold. Or you own a house. These are races that aren't going to "finish" in any ordinary future that you can foresee. Such a race is open-ended. No arbitrarily chosen measure of time or distance, no judge or referee will tell you when you can stop striving and flop down on the grass. You are required to do that yourself -- you alone. The race ends when you say it ends.”

About forecasting – How to be correct

If you can't forecast right, forecast often.

The stock market, for example, is a colossal engine of human emotion. Prices of stocks rise and fall because of what men and women are doing, thinking, and feeling.

The price of a given company's shares doesn't rise because of abstract figures in an accounting ledger, nor even because the company's future prospects are objectively good, but because people think the prospects are good. The market doesn't slump because a computer somewhere determines selling pressure is on the rise, but because people are worried, or discouraged, or afraid. Or simply because a four-day weekend is coming and all the buyers are off for the seashore.

ON PATTERNS – How to avoid pattern trap in Stocks (Best Axiom)

Fate let him ride high for a while so he would have farther to fall.

Clinging to his illusion of order, Fisher was unprepared for his streak of luck to end.

(Pattern in stock markets help you to ride high for a while, they create illusion that steak of luck will never end. On the contrary it takes high to give us a higher fall)

A truth which is in practice even today i.e. a prediction valid even today:

The trap that caught Professor Fisher, the illusion of order, has caught millions of others and will go on catching investors, speculators, and gamblers for all eternity.

Everybody is looking for this Formula. Unfortunately, there isn't one.

The truth is that the world of money is a world of patternless disorder, utter chaos. Patterns seem to appear in it from time to time, as do patterns in a cloudy sky or in the froth at the edge of the ocean. But they are ephemeral. They are not a sound basis on which to base one's plans. They are alluring, and they are always fooling smart people like Professor Fisher. But the really smart speculator will recognize them for what they are and, hence, will disregard them.

On charts and signals

Making charts of stock prices is like making charts of ocean froth. You'll see each pattern once, and then it will be gone. Only by blind chance will you ever see it again. If you do see it again it will have no significance, for it predicts nothing.

On Human Mind and searching for co-relations

The human mind is an order-seeking organ. It is uncomfortable with chaos and will retreat from reality into fantasy if that is the only way it can sort things out to its satisfaction. Thus, when two or more events occur in close proximity, we insist on constructing elaborate causal links between them because that makes us comfortable.

When chaos is dangerous

Always remember that you are dealing with chaos and conduct your affairs accordingly. As the Axiom says, chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.

On Making Money

When it comes to money, they must all stumble around in the dark the way everybody else must.

In handling your money, assume you are entirely on your own. Lean on nothing but your own good wits.

Optimism and Pessimism

"Never make a move if you are merely optimistic," says the Axiom. Seek confidence instead. Confidence comes not from expecting the best, but from knowing how you will handle the worst.

The poker pro knows what he is going to do if the cards fall against him. Of course, he hopes they won't, but he doesn't let his fate ride on that hope. He goes into the game trained and prepared to act sensibly in case his luck of the draw is bad. That’s what is meant by constructive pessimism.

In poker, if a pro arrives at a situation in which the odds say he shouldn't bet, he doesn't. He folds. This means he must abandon what he has so far contributed to the pot, but it saves him from a bigger loss.

Source:

http://neif.org Financial literacy

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/axiom