Howard Marks - Investors/Luck/Intelligence

But I don’t remember ever writing about his second factor, which Galbraith says is “the specious association of money and intelligence.” When people get rich, others take that to mean they’re smart. And when investors succeed, it’s often assumed their intelligence can lead to similarly good results in other fields. Further, successful investors often come to believe in the strength of their own intellect and opine about fields with no connection to investing. 

But investors’ success can be the result of a string of lucky breaks or a propitious environment, rather than any special talents. They may or may not be intelligent, but often they don’t know any more than most others about subjects outside of investing. Nevertheless, many are unsparing with their opinions, and those opinions often are highly valued by the general populace. That’s the specious part. And today we find some of them speaking with conviction on all sides of the issues related to the election.

Howard Marks

Alphaideas

Finding New Ideas - Stock Picker

Well connected statement shared in an article helps you to understand that there is a connectivity across.

For me – I find ideas like a spider builds a web. The spider can’t catch a fly by singling out one fly. It makes a web and waits. It’s the same for finding ideas. You must build out your web through brute force, screening, researching, networking, and relationships. You must be diligent in maintaining your web and keeping it free of debris so you can feel the tremor. It might be once every two years or ten times per year but eventually something will hit your web and you will feel it. Then you go see what you caught.

Source:

1.MicroCapClub

2.Alphaideas

Hit and Run Vahan / Rath Case - Bharat

Recently, in the past few months there have been cases of Hit and Run Cases:

Mumbai hit-and-run case: Mihir Shah admits he was driving BMW car at time of crash, say police.

Pune teen, who killed 2 with Porsche, submits 300-word essay on road safety.

In Sanatan India more than 750 years back horse and Rath were used as travelling mode by Royalties.

Nowhere in the stories / books / Podcasts anywhere an incident appeared where a commoner was struck with the Rath / Vahan of the Royalty and died. Similar to the present day Hit and Run case.

Rath / Vahan of the Royalties, 750 years back leading to thousands of years were the high end vehicles of those times.

Surprising never heard of such incidents / accidents.

Were those period accident free, difficult to accept or those times were ruled by King and no one dared to go against the Royalties.

Food for thought for all the current researchers.

India - Compensate Voters / Candidates

In India, politicians contest from two / more different constituencies. Post win, they drop out from one / two.

Example: Congress politician Rahul Gandhi won from Rae Bareli and Wayanad during 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

On 18th June 2024, congress clarified:

During a pivotal Congress core meeting, it was decided that Rahul Gandhi would keep the family bastion of Rae Bareli, while his sister, Priyanka, would run for the seat in Wayanad...

One suggestion to Election Commission of India:

There is no harm in running for two seats. However, if you win both or more and drop one or two seats, compensation should be collected from the member.

The member should compensate for the following:

• Cost of the running the booth for election i.e. election staff, EVM Machine rent, security staff etc.
• Place a cost for every voter who voted for the winning candidate in case of Rahul Gandhi 647455 total votes. 
• In case of Wayanad seat, arrive at price based on common working or else place for example INR 1 / INR 5 per vote and recover it from the individual / party.
• Use the fund collected for the expenses to be incurred for re-conducting the elections and balance remaining for development of the constituencies.

The objective is not to penalize the Individual / Politician:

• Time shared by voters for voting 
• Voters believing in the candidate for what he will do for the constituency
• Compensate the voters who voted for the candidate
• The expenses (Deposits / Fee / Advertisements etc.) incurred by the other candidates for contesting, that particular seat.

At the same time, not allowing the winning candidate to walk free smiling with no cost attached.

Let there be a price to drop out from a constituency.

Ancient Indian Legal System

 Interesting speech on Ancient Indian Legal System.

Worth listening.

Article on Debt Worth Reading

 Article on Debt by Howard Marks is worth reading.

The link is provided to read the full article below.

The Impact of Debt

Two portions worth noting down below for quick understanding:

The magnification of gains and losses stemming from leverage is typically symmetrical: a given amount of leverage amplifies gains and losses similarly. But levered portfolios face a downside risk to which there isn’t a corresponding upside: the risk of ruin. The most important adage regarding leverage reminds us to “never forget the six-foot-tall person who drowned crossing the stream that was five feet deep on average.” To survive, you have to get through the low points, and the more leverage you carry (everything else being equal), the less likely you are to do so. 

As Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote in Fooled by Randomness:

Reality is far more vicious than Russian roulette. First, it delivers the fatal bullet rather infrequently, like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands of chambers instead of six. After a few dozen tries, one forgets about the existence of a bullet, under a numbing false sense of security . . .  Second, unlike a well-defined precise game like Russian roulette, where the risks are visible to anyone capable of multiplying and dividing by six, one does not observe the barrel of reality. . . . One is thus capable of unwittingly playing Russian roulette – and calling it by some alternative “low risk” name. 

Thanks:

Howard Marks

Morgan Housel

Alpha Ideas

Elitist Mentality - Intellectual reality

When you retweet it you are endorsing it.

Elitist mentality. Unfortunate.